Útdráttur:

Why do we have the current rifting episode on the Reykjanes Peninsula (RP)? When will it erupt next? And where? These are burning questions of importance for society. Here I will review major findings from deformation and seismic studies. Earth's crust is continually being stressed by plate motion; at failure the stresses are relesed by diking and/or faulting. Open near-surface or un-coupled fractures can also move easily under low stress change. Magma delivery from the mantle has already affected most of the volcanic systems on the RP. There is clear evidence for interconnectivity of the volcanic systems in terms of alternating focus of deformation. At Fagradalsfjall geodetic data show the crustal magma domain is deeper (~10 km) than at Svartsengi (~4.5 km). Repeated inflation-deflation cycles, with less and less surface deformation related to dike growth are characteristic of continued inflow into the crustal magma region, punctuated by episodic discharge into dikes and/or the surface. The net volume budget of the Svartsengi magma domain, inferred from geodetic data, implies that the system is well below it's pre-Nov-2023 inflation status, such that eruptions in other parts of the Svartsengi system than Sundhnúksgígar remain unlikely for the time being.

Öll velkomin!